Anx – I am not sure why you try and antagonize me, I do not believe I have ever done anything to warrant this. These things I mention are commonly known things in the fund management world. The sharp mid year corrections in years ending in 7 historically is there, just look at a stock chart of the DOW back to 1900. It is of the utmost importance to be aware of large scale cycles when you are a market timer like I am. They do not always repeat in exact fashion.
As far as the track record on my site. That just reflects the actual results of the system that is featured in the daily trading service, which was created and put into play in Feb of 2004. I have other systems that I use that are not on the site with longer track records. The % return depends on an individuals money management style.
I risk anywhere from 5 to 20% of my accounts on any one individual trade which can make the return percentages very high in good years. 2004 was a triple digit year, 2005 was in the high 70’s percentage wise, and this year it is at approximately 33% YTD(the system has not done as well this year as the last two so far).
You could also figure returns based on the margin of a bond contract which is $2000, however, that makes the return percentage disproportionally high and hence is misleading. Also, a trader should have his margin in T-bills yielding 5% at all times, which also adds to the return, but is not part of trading results.
As a result of all of this, it is hard to state a specific return percentage. I have entered an international trading contest with this system this year, which will provide an actual return % for a full year utilizing all of the trades from the daily trading service. That is the best way I could show a return for someone to see, in an independently audited fashion. I was in first place at one point, and have currently slipped out of the top 3. They only list the top 3, so I do not know where I stand exactly. I only know that the return is currently at 33%, the guy in third is at 44% currently.
At one point I was up 61% and then the system took a couple of losses. I hope this answers your question.
