All of the reasons why I went to cash in stocks are the reasons I explained in my newsletter the last 3 months. The seasonals, the commercials, and the bond market divergence. My plan all along was to exit in April/May and gear up for the fall rally. Seasonals do not always work right on the dime, but they do provide a good general framework to look for opportunities. The market has not yet fallen as far as I thought it would by now, so maybe it will not. I will just wait until the fall, and see if this trade is set up properly. If today were Nov 1st, it would not be a go due to the commercials not being heavily long at this point.
I have no idea if there is any correlation between consumer spending and stock rallies and declines. I have never studied that. It is tough to use government reports for study due to all of the revisions that occur over time with them.
