Case for the lower end staying about where it is now: the low end is selling, which means that there are willing buyers at this price. This would lead one to figure that the market has said “yes” to this price point. As long as there are first time buyers who qualify and say “yes” to this price level, it will likely stick or raise. The jump from a $200k home to a $400k home is too steep for a first time buyer, so it makes sense that the low end has achieved price discovery.