carmel valley is a nice area. it’s close to town, new in development, good freeway access… but it’s overpriced. cv is the least expensive in ncc? compared to oceanside?
i would say that cv is far more desireable than carlsbad, encinitas, del mar, etc for the given reasons excluding price. being inland is obviously going to affect price so i dont think it’s a far comparison.
given the choice for a very upper middle class family, cv is far and away more attractive than poway, rancho whatever, north tijuana (chula east lake), etc. that should be obvious to anyone. given that, it should stand to reason that cv will hold out longer against the tide than everywhere else. ergo, “flight to quality”, although i’d stand to reason that there is no “flight”, that demand for quality always exists. just that the demand for crap dies as speculation dies and therefore you “see” a relative “flight”.
but as far as market bellweathers are concerned, i speculate that the high end marks the market. that demand for better and better properties is sparked by “move ups”. when the supply of move-ups dwindles/dies, the high end gets hit first. the “cant-move-up-anymore” either stay still or fall down, but like a weak foundation, they no longer support the top.
evidence: median prices. if the bottom dropped while the top stayed up (in terms of sales volume and price), median prices would creep up. more evidence: biggest cuts in current prices are at the top while the bottom is still holding out.
