[quote=CA renter]Those echo Boomers already live somewhere. The bubble was unprecedented in the number of young/unqualified people who were able to buy, even in their early 20s! Others are renting.
I’m not thinking about the Boomers downsizing as much as I notice that the very desirable communities are filled with people in their 70s and 80s. Yes, some of their heirs will move in when they pass away, but many of their kids already live locally…freeing up another house.
The stock market decline took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Boomers. They were not prepared for the losses they took, and many will have to resort to “Plan B” (selling the house and cashing out their equity).
Most of them were NEVER expecting to sell their homes for prices that were reached during the bubble. Most of them are sitting on plenty of equity, and there is no reason for them to “hold on” to something when they are still making a nice profit. I think some bulls are being unrealistic in their assumptions about Boomers caring about peak prices. Most of the Boomers I know never thought those prices would ever be reached in the first place. IMHO, very few will “hold on” for peak prices when they can still sell for a nice profit and cash out plenty of equity and move to a senior community or mobile home park or live with their kids.
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While there is some truth to the above, what about the echo of the echo boomers,
Last year I think it was the biggest baby boom ever, more so than even during the height of the boomers baby boom. There will be some serious move up demand in about 5 or so years is my guess.
Also I would not count on the boomers downsizing in any numbers for at least another 5 to 10 years so we will need to see what the market looks like at that time is my guess.
Maybe move up and first home meets boomer downsize, that would be my guess as well,
You will just have to take my word for it but the Chinese, Those with the spare change are definitely are looking to buy in coastal Socal (inland not so much), I think you will always have extra demand in Coastal Socal than most of the rest of the country (sorry that is just the price of paradise ).
