[quote=CA renter][quote=livinincali]I think recession in 2015 is pretty likely. Europe is probably already in recession but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, China is slowing down, and decoupling is a myth. I wouldn’t bet on the Fed resuming QE. Even if they did, the damage would already be done by the time they got around to it. The problem is that when this current asset price bubble pops there’s not going to be much to do to ignite another one.[/quote]
Agree with everything except the first sentence. I’ve long believed that if the Fed/govt were to manipulate the market when the economy fell apart (which they’ve done), that they could keep it limping along until around 2016-2017.
I think things will continue to gradually slow, with some bounces along the way, until 2016/2017. At that point, I think that the current bubble has the potential to collapse…and take everything else with it.
Stupid Fed couldn’t manage to learn from their asinine mistakes of the early part of the past decade when they kept rates too low for too long. Now, we will ALL pay the price, instead of the lenders, borrowers, speculators, and the assorted regulators/facilitators who caused the last crisis.[/quote]
Where do you see a current bubble? In the stock market? I think Rich’s data show that at least locally, while housing prices are on the higher side of “normal”, they aren’t in bubble territory (yet?)
