Building permits were not a useful predictor; they lagged prices on the way back up (i.e., prices started moving up in ’96; permits only started moving up in ’97):
[img_assist|nid=1691|title=
Prices and New Home Permits|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=267]
Population is nice, but total employment, which I use, certainly reflects population and is available monthly. County wide personal income would be better, as it would reflect population, employment, and wherewithal to pay, but it’s only available annually.
The OFHEO data peaked in Q2 ’06 at 324.56, not Q3 ’04, when it was 280.46. You are confusing peak rate of change (Q3 ’04) with peak in absolute value (Q2 ’06). Prices for resale median homes were higher in June ’06 than in October ’04.
OFHEO data comes from (1) closed sales and (2) refinancings, both on resale homes. Given such, it makes sense that it is consistent with the DataQuick data on closed sales for resale homes.
I’m confused; (1) I’ve laid out three factors — NODs, sales, and employment — that tightly fit the data from the last upturn. (2) The three factors, together, give a three month heads up of increasing prices. (3) Two of the three factors — NODs and employment — give 12-36 months heads up of potentially increasing prices. (4) The three factors individually and together make economic sense. (5) The three factors are available free of charge from sources on the internet.
