Bubblesitter: Latest issue of Economist had an article on how Brazil would fare better now than in the past, if a worldwide recession hits. The article also mentioned, in passing, that other countries are less at risk than in previous downturns as well.
I think those countries that have a vested interest in both the US and the US consumer (think China and India) are likely to take the biggest blow. Look how hard the US toy recall hit quite a few Chinese manufacturers in that market.
On the insurance and reinsurance side, you are looking at companies like MBIA and Ambac that are virtually dead in the water if they don’t arrange a seriously large cash infusion and fast. Channel Re has admitted that their holdings are essentially valueless, and I would bet they are only the first to get caught out in this respect. If the reinsurance market starts taking on heavy water, it will get very ugly quickly in the standard and premium insurance markets.
