Bob,
Did you post previously under bob007 or another name? Just curious.
As far as the bottom goes, It doesn’t mean to me you can’t find a losing property and all properties are holding even in eternity or going up. Is that what you mean? I am looking at it as a reasonable entry point where a person with using common sense puts themselves in a likely position to remain satisfied with the situation. That means something to different people and for different types of deals, but as much as a 20% swing wouldn’t phase me on a owner occupied home,if I hit most parameters close to right and thought it was relatively unlikely for one reason or another.I know many people who have been through this kind of swing and it didn’t phase them. If it does maybe they weren’t using common sense.Maybe they were unlucky.
Of course I would like to believe I make better deals than that and always have but I am not going to die thinking about it if I want to buy a house or help a client who does with their eyes open. I quit selling in 2003 and have been very vocal about how fast and hard the crash was going to be. That’s good enough for me. That’s my bottom.
