Dude, it IS speculation. I don’t think there is any prediction here that is not, regardless of how many bankers you have meet with. All anyone can do is guess, since market conditions are not the only force here. The guess/speculation of 10% is just that. The important point was that my guess (yes, my guess), based on the original poster’s 5% or 10% question. Are you saying that your counter point of “more than 10%” is not speculation?
“Bob, this is speculation at its best. Do yourself a favor and try not to throw numbers out. A higher than 10% decline is much more likely and the chances are if the banks were forced to release inventory there would be a much greater decline in many areas.”[/quote]
Bob you are right, it is all speculation, and I appreciate your best guess. Nobody knows for sure since there are way too many unnatural forces at play here. I think deep down, I still feel as though it is too early and that prices will correct further. Problem is I am bombarded by counter data and the koolaide drinking general public who thinks that housing is on its way back up. To a certain extent, if most people believe this, it can become a self fufilling prophecy. I appreciated Socrattt’s comment about the “shadow inventory” as this has been one of the reasons I have waited. It is and probably will be an interesting 2 years to come.
