bob, you may be right but using the actions of the fed, the banks and the gov’t as an indicator of a specific micromarket, an actual zip code doesn’t hold water. Obama doesn’t lose sleep about 92592. we are at 60% off, we are at mid 1990’s pricing, some are tied with 1991. Until exclipse joined in, I was the only one making that call, I went babe ruth, pointed at right field and I’ll suffer the consequences if wrong. I did not, repeat, did not, call bottom for any other area. most have much more to lose.
Harry, there is only one street in all of vail ranch that is larger than 3000 sq ft, it’s a fill in street on Valentino. Vail is entry level, mostly sub 2k sq ft without an hoa and has/will fall a little harder due to the smaller housing stock, poor condition, older homes and higher rental percentage, valentino is an anomoly, one street of nice, big houses in a low end neighborhood, $80 a square is a gift and not indicative of the market as a whole. The best house in the worst neighborhood is still not as good as the worst house in the best neighborhood.
Either way $80 is a fair sq ft price and is one of the factors I considered in calling bottom, I paid in the 80 range for morgan hill, with luck you can find it in morgan and redhawk, logic says it should be less as you move down the foodchain neighborhood wise. But it won’t be move in condition, one of the reasons for the spread, lot size/view, house size (smaller tends to have higher ppsf) etc can cause the 80-100 a square variation. If it goes 50-70 a square with regularity, then of course I won’t be able to show my face around here.
It isn’t pure supply and demand, because it isn’t in a vaccum, demand doesn’t have to come from the local population. When it reaches texas pricing, it becomes attractive to retirees or refugees from higher priced areas, something often overlooked.
Everyone has made their opinions known, all I ask is for anyone to quote a ppsf for an average house or a specific one. What do you think a 2500 redhawk house will fall to. They are about 250k now, with a plus or minus depending on various factors, if you think they will go to 150k, then call it, if you think they will hit 75k, then call it. I remember bearvine telling me that the houses i was looking at would get to the 250-300 range for over 3000 sq ft, near new in morgan, with lots of bells and whistles. They did for a few seconds, I took the bait, if it turns out I’m wrong then all I lost was some credibility online. Either way, I was paying 1500 to rent a condo, now I pay 2000 to own a house twice as large and after the tax deduxtion, it’s a wash. That, is why I called bottom. Because those condos I rented can be bought with an fha loan for 700 a month. Even with 20% unemployment, even if middle aged women have to work, they can buy a condo with their mall job, that is another reason for me calling bottom. Do you really think there is another 25 or 50% left in the downturn? Do you think that the apartment like condos on 79S that are going for 100k will be 50k, or the large townhouses with 2 car attached garages and yards off butterfield will go for 70k (140k is the going rate today). Really?
See, not all people read the financial horror stories, the normal folk look at their own numbers. If one cell phone service is half the price of another, they switch. If Wallmart is cheaper, they go there. And if they can actually save on rent, as much as 1/3 off by buying with as little as 3% down, they buy. They could give a crap what the pundits say.
