bgates hit some issues correctly:
1) The stock-related chart is completely unrelated to real estate. Lets just ignore it.
2) You know what I think about that other guy’s article – it isn’t surprising that bgates had the exact same issues with it that I had when you last posted it. Lets ignore that, too.
3) The date from which you start the 1% growth is important, and can affect the analysis significantly. How did you come up with it? 2003 seems random.
4) Your SD analysis isn’t bad, however you make a leap of faith in your assumption that I can’t accept.
Schiller claims that housing increases by 1% per year, nominally, but your analysis is on the ratio of housing prices-to-income. A major, major leap of analysis that has really no merit.
Schiller doesn’t make any claim about the ratio of housing to income. Just housing prices.
