[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Arraya]So you are saying if we released 40,000 homes to the SD market it would be cleared up in a few months with just a little dip. Now I have not followed local RE numbers in about 2 years, but I seem to remember that being a little more that a few months supply
Coupled with an anemic job market I think you may be down playing the severity of the correction.[/quote]
Arraya, are you SURE there are 40,000 properties in SD County where a NOS has been filed and a sale on the courthouse steps is imminent?
.[/quote]
All data is wrong. This is from TRW. It has to do with >60 day lates. As of March nationally we have 14% and SD has 9.85% of mortgage holders delinquent. Some will get short saled and some will get mod’ed(possibly – we’ve only had like a 4% mod success rate thus far). Generally, when somebody goes > 60 days late they have about a 95% chance of default
This is not counting less than <60 day lates that also have a probability of default
If you don't like these numbers, cut them in half, it's still bad
Aside from the massive inventory bottleneck, which is unrecognized downward pressure, we have the fact that there is virtually no private mortgage market that is not backed by the gov.
So really, there is no market to analyze per se. All speculation on what would happen if one or more unprecedented interventions was not in place, is just that speculation. What we know is there would be dramatically less money available and dramatically more inventory. At this point you can just throw historical averages in the trash because the don't mean a thing.
