Bear in mind that my house did not sell in either time period. If it did, it could have sold above or below the values i used based upon the skill of the agent in pricing the property, the sellers motivation and many other factos. However, the numbers I presented are very solid typical cases of what price levels were and are in my submarket. As it is, esmith’s data as well as the case shiller figures dramatically overstate bubble appreciation and understate bust depreciation thus far IMO>
People get too excited over some whizbang statistical analysis. There is just too much noise in the data. I dont trust any data points. Whenever, i look at a comp I always question the price. Sometimes people sold too cheap and sometimes they got lucky with a high price. Sometimes the data is entered improperly or there are incentives undislcosed. Sometimes agents get paid and sometimes there are fsbo sales. Nearly every data point has quirks of some regard. I prefer to dwell in the world of theoretical price levels that existed at a point in time and what they are currently. I find this to be a much more reliable indicator of what is really happening.
