[quote=Arraya]I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.
You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?
Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.
See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?
Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.
Let me rehash for you:
There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.
The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.
-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse
I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.
1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.
2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.
On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.
Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.
Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.[/quote]
Very well put Arraya!
Folks who take your advice will save tons of money. It’s so painfully obvious how f-ed up the market is and yet some will still try and find ways to argue the facts. I cannot imagine a worse environment for RE values in SD or how there could ever be more negative factors weighing against it.
Realtors make money if they convince someone to sell or buy, thus they will always be doing one or the other. Many of those who are engaging in bidding wars and wooing realtors to get their 20% over list bid to the top of the pig-men’s pile will lose their asses and walk away eventually. We the tax payers will pick up the tab, again, and realtors will have completed another cycle of f-ing their fellow Americans.
This round of knife catcher debate is indeed funny, replete with a realtor who never gave anyone bad advice.
