Arraya: Great idea. After I down a bottle of vodka and some Librium, that is.
Kidding aside, while I agree with much of what you’re saying, I don’t know that the outcomes you describe are the only possibilities.
I think the rise of the internet and the widespread availability of information (not knowledge, information) has both upside and downside. While I certainly agree with the free and open dissemination of information, how it is used is still open to interpretation.
Similarly, in terms of outcomes, I think there are multiple possibilities and not all of them are as dire as the ones you sketch out. At least, I hope not.
The one area I’ve been watching closely is China, especially the western part. The recent unrest with the Uighurs has captured my interest and attention and how China handles this will be illustrative. I don’t see that China will be able to completely divorce themselves from the US, either in terms of currency or commerce and Russia’s continued politicking (to me) is nothing more than a nearly failed state with delusions of greatness trying to exercise what little influence she still has.
If oil does drop to $20/bbl by year’s end, that will finally put paid to Putin and his Pamyat buddies’ hope for the return of a Greater Russia to the world stage.
