Another thing about the boomer generation is their retail purchasing power, which when it declines will have a corresponding effect on the general economy.
We tend to consume more when we enter that nesting phase of our lives and raise our kids. After the kids leave, those expenses beyond necessities decline. Having kids in the house often triggers consumption patterns for the adults they wouldn’t otherwise have, and that goes beyond stuff that’s related to raising the kid. Having a teenager around can prompt a parent to buy the bigger TV or to stay current with clothing fashions, or to buy the big ride, or do other things they wouldn’t do if it was just the parents in the house. Kids actually add to the peer pressure the parents feel to compete.
A person only needs so many vacuums, toasters, furniture, linens, etc.. Once they have what they want they usually have no problem cutting back when the money slows down.
In generations past, the age ranges where this usually happened was somewhere around 45-50, after the kids were out of the house and doing their own thing. This generation is different because we have allowed our kids to “enjoy” that extended childhood that carries through to their late-20s. This means those parents don’t really slow down till their late-50s.
If the Boomer generation is just now starting to turn 60, that means that the big bubble in reduced retail consumerism – if it comes at all – would still lie ahead for most people. A couple who waited until their late-30s to have kids wouldn’t get to slowing down until they hit their mid-60s.
Once the boomer generation is out of the consumerism phase the demographics would seem to dictate that the retail trends will go into a long term decline, with smaller spikes in the future. Whether that will be offset by foreign immigration and/or the elevation of the currently-poor into middle income ranges remains to be seen.
I kinda doubt that the purchasing power of the boomers will be completely replaced after they’re gone. I can also envision that we may be entering a period of lowered expectations, the effect of which may manifest itself in everything from the size of houses that are built to the designs of cars. We may possibly never see subdividions of 6,000 SqFt houses or 7,000 lb. urban assault vehicles again after the boomers leave the scene.
