AN – Yes, I will buy 10 houses and rent out 9, at the bottom of the market. Not now.
Daniel and VegasRenter – did you track the months inventory for these cities and times, as well as the multiples of housing prices as rents and wages? We need to look at months inventory, changes in inventory and sales, HAI, and a return to a true values (multiple of wages and rents in line with history) and combine that with the experience of realtors in the field.
What you both provided is interesting, but in the absence of data, does not dispute my method at all. Perhaps the price changes you noted were just statistical noise in monthly home sales.
Check out the historical price/income charts on piggington’s Bubble Primer. You can see home prices move in one direction from top to bottom , without rallies or false bottoms/tops as you find in stock charts.
I had not heard of false rallies in housing markets. Do you have any charts? Or are these rallies just monthly noise? I will not buy on monthly noise, or a temporary blip. It doesn’t matter to me if prices dip down one month or two. I am looking at the fundamentals: home prices vs. wages and rents, and demand measured by months inventory.
Just curious – when are you planning to buy a house, and how do you plan on making your decision on timing?
