[quote=AN]It’s possible some of the 2000 in 2003-2006 could be above norm, but how can you explain the 2000 number in 1999-2001? As sdr just posted, even in 1997-1998, it was higher than 1300. It was only less than that in 1996 (which was at the bottom of the last cycle). Total housing stock went up A LOT compare to 1996-1999, yet closings went down to 1996 level. The only conclusion I can draw from that is, people who bought in that area can and are holding on until they get the price they want. Which explains the lack of supply and therefore, the lack of closings.[/quote]The original post (which you were referring to) had none of this detail and his latest post came after our interchange.
So, I’m going to stick with the fact that you certainly seem to be reading a lot into his initial post. There were two periods sdr referred to, one we’d consider bubbly and the other not. And nothing about holding power, just sales volume. You contend that bubbly sales volume is more the norm, I suggest that it may not be.
That said, I’m not sure what the strict correlation is between volume and price. I’m sure somebody has graphed it somewhere. There would certainly seem to be a correlation to some extent, I’m just not sure how constant it is. For example, it seems sales volume in 2007 was low because prices were simply too high. In 2010, it appears to be more related to available inventory.
I’m also thinking that “normal” sales volume would be somewhere between the 1300 and 2000 figures.
