[quote=AN][quote=davelj]Let me give you a specific example: There’s a guy that runs a boutique investment bank in NYC that’s been incredibly successful – worth well over $100 million. In an interview he recently said (and I’m paraphrasing), “I was a very average investment banker in the ’70s but I was in the right place at the right time in the right sector with the right group of partners. There was nothing that really distinguished us but we got lucky on a few deals and it was off to the races. I seriously doubt I could replicate what I’ve done if I were starting out today – it’s a different world.”[/quote]
Here’s one specific example that say randomness is not 100% of the equation: There are 2 friends, both graduated as software engineers right after the .com crash from the same school with similar grades. Both started out at the same company. Guy A worked at 2 companies over the last 12 years and bought his house in 2005. He asked guy B if he wants to buy that house with him. Guy B declined and gave him reasons why he thinks the market is a bubble and will probably crash. Guy A bought anyways. Now, with guy B, he moved to 5 different companies over the same 12 years. Now, guy B makes more than guy A. Also, since guy B didn’t buy in 2005, he was able to buy a bigger house in 2009 for less than what guy A bought his house in 2005. Also, he was able to pick up an investment property in 2011 as well as looking to pick up another investment property. All the while, guy A is trying to do a loan mod on his house. The net worth between the two are pretty drastically different for two guys who start out basically at the same place with the same amount of smartness. Both guys were dealt with the same .com crash, the same RE bubble and the same RE crash. So, in essence, both got dealt with the same good and bad luck. But guy B made some good decision that allow him to be in a better spot wrt to net worth. BTW, over that same 12 years, guy B have worked at every companies guy A worked at. It’s just that guy B jump around a few other companies in between guy A’s 1st and 2nd company transition. That allow guy B to get paid higher than guy A at his 2nd company.[/quote]
AN, in fairness I thinks guy B got lucky. I have an opposite story to tell you.
Employee A starts at company Q in pre 1996… Employee B starts at Q in 1997.5. In fact Employee A was on the interviewing team that brought in a group of people that included Employee B. Company Q makes decision to sell money losing CBS division to company E.
Company Q tells group A and B no worries, we’ll handle the transaction ok and meanwhile blocks internal transfers for Group A and Group B anywhere else until more clarity is done. At sell time, Group B doesn’t work on relevant project for CBS moves employees to satellite company G and/or Corp R&D and some other position. However, Group A was on mainline product dev goes to company E…And despite reassurance from VP A who was supposedly in the same group..transfers the last minute to company Q Mobile group H, leaving Group A folks shafted.
Group A folks lose 1/3-1/2 of their net portfolio because company Q shafted Group A in unvested portion of stock/stock options “upon change of control clause, or lack there of”. Group B sees the same portion of the portfolio rise 8x over the next 8 years.
Employee A, who obviously smelled a rat before acquisition left for startup in a bayarea prior to fiasco well in advance. But despite 4-5 startups that all made decent money (all that either went public or were subsequently acquired) would have been a lot better off if he/she was either (a) was part of Group B or (b)had not turning down job opportunities from startup firms N/S/Y/J in Bay Area prior to joining shitty company Q for considerably less pay/comps (then pitched by blond HR rep as the “sunshine tax”)…
And subsequently later at company Q, Group C that was sold to handset company K and Group D that had to be absorbed after satellite company G went belly up, those were handled a hell of lot more smoother after Company Q realized what a fvcking botched thing handling Group A was. But Group A just got fvcked…Period…Especially for the ones that decided to stay at company E and subsequently saw company E close, and had to literally *beg* to be absorbed back into company Q years later.
It also explains why maybe some employees from Group A vow they would try to avoid working for Q but would rather work for just about anyone other company..Because purely from an opportunity perspective, they know that if Q was the only game in town, everyone any employee from Group B, C, D, ….Z in San Diego would be shafted because supply and demand would be just so wacked….Not that employee from Group A wants company Q to do bad…Quite the opposite…A good performing company Q increases lots of new hire employees who can’t buy a home right away for the next few years and who needs to rent in city M….
I can’t say the same thing for Bay Area millionaires, but the company Q millionaires…A lot of them got there really by luck. It was really arbitrary who was in Group A or B. In fact, the irony was Group B people were named as such…They weren’t necessarily the main performing group that was working on the project at the time. Of course, folks from Group B will deny that completely now. They will say some bullshit that we had 100% clarity to be in Group B when the shit was going down. I called B.S. on that.. Because when project CBS was going into the shitter, Group B folks were on the list of being possibly laidoff….
