[quote=AN][quote=bearishgurl]IMO, there really is no fundamental reason why the residential RE in “close in” (=<45 miles from SF) bay area cities will "crash" for any reason.
Firstly, there are MANY industries up there besides the tech industry which are large employers.[/quote]It's not about the amount of industries and jobs but how well does the workers get paid. When you're talking about $1.6M for a crappy 1700 sq-ft tract house in an area with bad schools. I think it starts to get ridiculous. But my crystal ball is broken, so I can't say when it will crash. My gut feeling is that it will. Never say never.[/quote]
AN, I looked over the "low quality tract home" thread again today and clicked on the links. You and flu were comparing the most expensive homes in the most expensive cities in SV to prices of SD homes situated close to tech jobs. You weren’t comparing SV “worker-bee” homes at all! What about that ~1100 sf WW box in MV (or San Bruno/Millbrae) with a one-car garage? SV worker-bees live there! Or that ~1900 sf 1970’s era home in Fremont, just across the Dumbarton Bridge? SV worker bees live there also. It’s only an extra ~20-30 mins each way to cross the Dumbarton Bridge (assuming the worker lives close to the other side of the bridge). The same is true of the SM bridge and Hayward/San Leandro on the other side. The homes in these East-Bay cities are even cheaper than Fremont homes but tend to be older and smaller (but not as small as the WWII boxes in northern SM County cities). Hayward, in particular, has a LOT to offer by way of public secondary schools, their great extra-curricular programs and CC, as well as a BART stn and CSUEB practically within walking distance (not sure about Elem school quality). San Leandro and Fremont also have BART stations. And the Fremont school district is one of the best in the bay area! If you live in Fremont and work in Santa Clara southward, you can take the Nimitz Fwy around the bottom of the bay to work and back and thus avoid the bridge altogether!
You guys were only posting links to homes where a worker could walk or ride a bike to Google or Apple. You must know that it is wholly unrealistic for a worker from out of the area who accepts a job up there to be able to qualify to buy something in those areas immediately upon accepting employment in SV.
And btw, a very similar property to the ($5.6M?) 100+ year-old Palo Alto estate property (situated right in the middle of town) which you posted on that thread, joking, “As least it has ‘character,'” (or something to that effect) was “good enough” for Steve Job’s family to be raised in and for all we know, they probably still live there!
You and flu were essentially bantering back and forth about how the 1-5%-ers live in SV. That has nothing to do with the typical SV worker-bee commuting to/from work daily on company-paid shuttles.
It was just laughable to me that you live in MM (of all places) in SD yet you posted that you expect to be paid $300K upwards in SV upon accepting employment there so you can qualify to buy into an area which is far more valuable than MM! If you weren’t actually joking here, then your expectations are totally unrealistic and thru the roof, imho.
It isn’t about “how much workers are paid” at all. I don’t believe local salaries affect housing prices at all in the close-in Bay Area cities. It is all a matter of supply and demand. The reality is that the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of established residents who have resided there for decades have far deeper pockets than you and me.
This population had a lot more exposure to opportunity throughout their lives than did long-time San-Diegans. It is what it is. None of us can fix this now. It is partly due to the “sunshine tax” that we all paid to make SD County our home.
