I’ve done a little bit of research into the lithium production problem and it does seem like it’s going to be an issue at some point. I thought maybe it wouldn’t be an issue since I really don’t expect Tesla to get to it’s lofty annual production numbers, but if they do then it’s a real problem. Of course if the demand goes up rapidly before mining investments can be made then prices of Lithium will soar. At least until it becomes so uncompetitive that nobody is willing to buy EVs at that price point.
If you really believe in the EV future and want to profiteer a bit take a look at stock ticket LIT (ETF for lithium prices). Doesn’t look like a great buy right now, because you’d probably like to see it pull back a bit first but who knows.
The other problem for Tesla and the model 3 is that the federal tax credits for EVs manufactured by Tesla are going to expire fairly soon (Federal tax credit for EVs are limited to the first 200K units produced by an auto maker). Tesla already close to 100K vehicles produced so only another 100K of their units are eligible for a tax credit. Congress could extend the tax credits but I don’t know that they will. I don’t know about any sort of CA tax credit for EV. That might have different parameters.