AN – I agree that catching the absolute bottom is difficult, as is catching the absolute top.
I sold a rental prop in 2001 when the numbers I tracked such as the publicized “affordability” number was in the teens (~ 15%?), very close to the low hit in the previous peak. Boy was I wrong.
PS –
Another complication is the seasonal cycle. I know that the seasons in SD have more to do with June gloom and the amount of sunlight there is in the day than Autumn leaves and Winter chills.
However, there are very strong seasonal cycles in SD real estate. This adds “noise” to your measurement and you must be aware of these in any timing model.
