“america’s glory days are dwindling” because no one stays on top forever and success breeds lethargy. so, yes, china has certainly become an economic force to be reckoned with.
having said that, for our lifetimes and our children’s lifetimes the u.s. will continue to be THE dominant economic force on this planet. why? our risk-taking entrepreneurial culture is like nothing else on earth and is the real engine that drives the global economy. it’s no coincidence that silicon valley and wall street (and many others) dominate their respective global competitors in innovation and efficiency.
sure, china’s overall economy is growing very rapidly. but that’s what happens when you have a huge population (1.2 billion vs. 300 million here) and you’re starting from a very low base of per capita GDP. china’s grown at an annual rate of 9% (real) since 1978 but it’s per capita GDP is still only $1,200 (versus $38,000 here in the u.s.). also, as china’s economy gets larger it will run into the law of large numbers and a negative second derivative – that is, it will grow at a decreasing rate.
don’t get me wrong – china’s a powerhouse in the making and if you want to learn mandarin, it certainly can’t hurt. but english will continue to be the language of global commerce and not only that, it will become MORE so as each year passes – the momentum of using english around the globe is too strong at this point to reverse. mandarin will be the language for chinese businesses that don’t want to deal with “outsiders” – for better or worse.
frankly, if you’re going to have your kids learn a language, i’d have your kids learn spanish. there are 600 million people in latin america, we already have free trade agreements with many latin american countries, geographically latin america’s closer, and culturally they’re more similar to most americans than are the chinese (who have a fairly provincial culture when it comes to non-chinese). also, while latin america isn’t growing as fast as china, it’s growing much faster than the u.s. and has 3x china’s per capita GDP.
a general rule of thumb is that if wealthy new yorkers are doing it, it’s probably the result of some neurosis – these are the same people that spend a disproportionate part of their lives making sure that their (soon to be maladjusted neurotic) kids get into the right PRESCHOOL, for christ’s sake. i’ll take the other side of that trade. if they’re so inclined, my kids will learn spanish.
