[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
It’s also interesting to note that North Korea does not consider South Korea it’s main foe: The US holds that role. South Korea considers North Korea their main enemy, but not vice versa.
Either way, a second Korean War would be devastating and I don’t doubt that we’d see WMD and even nukes if Kim had them in deployable fashion. I don’t seriously think he wants war, especially because he knows the final outcome, but it’s a convenient bargaining chip/tool for him to use.
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it’s quite late but I must comment on this statement that NKorea doesn’t consider SKorea as its main enemy quite irks me. That idea is actually a very clever piece of propaganda NKorea has been spreading for a very long time. Despite the silly propaganda pieces they put up on their state TV/newspaper, their psychological operation against SKorea is quite sophisticate and experienced. NKorea is just taking advantage of the fact that N and S Korea shared same blood. But it’s BS that NKorea only considers US as its main enemy. It considers SKorea as it main enemy too.[/quote]
Dba: North Korea considers South Korea a foe, obviously, but the US is its main enemy and North Korea’s entire military posture is built around a “total war” operations plan designed to bleed US forces white and force our exit from the Korean peninsula.
While I certainly credit Kim and the North for being masters of propaganda, their war plans speak volumes, too.
As to your notion that China wouldn’t care too much if the North imploded and they were suddenly flooded with refugees: Not true. China has made no secret of their fears/concerns of both a unified Korea and the possibility of massive numbers of North Koreans seeking aid. China lacks the homogeneity the world credits them for, especially in terms of ethnicity and culture and there is a longstanding sense of enmity between China and Korea, despite their sharing communist credentials.
China is also struggling with maintaining control over various segments of their population and adding several million mouths to feed, along with the attendant social upheaval, wouldn’t be good.
To China, social “dislocation” is to be avoided at all costs, hence the government’s constant and consistent exhortations and admonishments regarding “harmony”, “togetherness” and “unity”. Their actions against Falun Gong, the Uighurs and the Tibetan/Nepalese “policies” clearly illustrate how fearful China is of both outside influences and/or those things that disrupt or dilute the party line.[/quote]
NK’s plan to bleed US white to force it out may have made some sense 1 or 2 decades ago but not any more. As I said earlier, it’s pretty remote possibility that in one on one fight between NK and SK armed forces NK would prevail. It will just take longer and bloodier but SK will prevail. NK’s ‘war plan’ isn’t a viable one any more. NK won’t get the kind of support Vietnam got from China/Russia. China would lose more than gain by supporting NK actively in a case of another Korean war…
I didn’t mean to imply China doesn’t care whether NK implodes. They care as much as to the point that they want to keep NK as a useful pin to prick USA to annoy/distract USA. However it’s very unlikely China will allow millions of NK folks to cross the Yalu River into China to the point where it will threaten stability of China. Maybe a few thousands or more but may get in. As soon as NK implodes for some reason, China will pretty much seal the border between China/NK. China recently moved up a few Infantry Divisions to China/NK
