Actually the Hussman article from which I quoted has more good stuff, including some graphs… whole thing is here but this (along with what I quoted above) is the meat:
The charts below are based on data since 1947. Monthly unemployment rates were sorted from highest to lowest, divided into equal groups, and the average unemployment rate and year-over-year CPI inflation rate were plotted for each group. What we observe in the data is strikingly opposite to the standard (mis)interpretation of the Phillips Curve. Indeed, higher unemployment is generally associated with higher, not lower general price inflation.
Contrast this with what I would assert is the real Phillips curve, which is simply a statement about labor scarcity. It says, in a very unadorned way, that when labor is scarce (low unemployment), the price of labor tends to rise relative to the price of other things (thus we observe real wage inflation). In contrast, when labor is plentiful (high unemployment), the price of labor tends to stagnate relative to the price of other things (real wages stagnate). Since productivity growth tends to be positive over time, it turns out that real wages actually fall on a productivity-adjusted basis when unemployment is high. From this perspective, it is no surprise that real wages fell by 1.6% in 2009, even as reported productivity grew.
