Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.
Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.
Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.
610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.
Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.
Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.
So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.
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Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.
My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.
