A number of you have commented on this already, but the magnitude of layoffs coming is sorely underestimated by your average lay person. I work in finance for a major tech company, and every lever at our disposal is being pulled right now. Travel down 40%, consulting 50%, overtime gone, layoffs in the pipeline, attrition replacement nonexistent, etc. I also know folks well placed at Qualcomm in finance working ridiculous hours, so I can say without question that they are feeling the pain (witness the recent earnings announcement as well).
The other thing folks forget is when you get into the 600k-800k price range, you are dealing with buyers whose income is highly variable: The lawyer whose billable hours are half what they were, the executive whose bonus is nonexistent, the salesman making half what he made last year: Not to mentione stock portfolios that are 40% of what they were, and options that are way underwater.
This will severely reduce the buyer pool, and the other wild card is interest rates, which could skyrocket if our foreign sugar daddies get nervous or decide they’d rather fund domestic consumption than American profligacy.
I just don’t see a bounce in the face of all that.
