Just saw this and looked back on my prediction and most of it remains in place.
I expected NAR to fight more but they rolled over and settled. Got that one wrong
Doesnt impact me much. Still the same. Its just theater to me at this point in my career
Impact will be felt mostly by buyers who will have a tougher go at getting quality representation. Still to TBD but Im still firm on this and them being among the losers
Sellers wont save much and prices wont change because of this. Still TBD but Im still firm on this. The big winners will be listing agent side that will increasingly be dual agents. With it tougher on buyers prices are less prone to being bid up for sellers. But no seller is gonna drop their price by 10 to 20% or anything because they are saving a percent or two on the commission. Prices will largely stagnate IMO as a stand off continues.
Redfin is more toast than ever as their business is primarily on the buyers side. At some point it should be an aquisition target for one of the big national brokerages.
Zillow is also in trouble as their primary business is selling buyer leads that will increasingly drop in value. They need a major shift in strategy and quickly! MLS associations across the country could become an endangered species and a national MLSlike database is one of their biggest opportunities
Compass will do well as a brokerage as they are on the listing side primarily but the stock isnt going anywhere. Real estate brokerage continues to be a low margin business and the tech company masquerade is over for them along with Redfin.
The size of the agent population will get crushed. There are tons of aging realtors hanging on for one last deal. Most will finally hang it up as not worth the hassle. The young high flying agents who thought this was easy? Decaf non fat latte please! The established dorsal finned agents with strong listing businesses will thrive more than ever. Consolidation is coming and half the agents currently out there could and should be gone in the next 2 to 3 years.
Did I leave anyone out?
Oh, property values will be just fine around here. There will be ebbs and flows but there is just too much going on around here. The cost of living has chased a higher number of residents out the last year but eventually things come back into balance and they will come back in droves. There is just too much to love about here and so many aspire to be here.
