Go here for your San Diego data: https://datasurfer.sandag.org/dataoverview. You can narrow it down by zipcode too. For 92126, the inflation adjusted income went from ~$80k (in 2010) to ~$85k (in 2021). So, that tells me the people who are moving in are wealthier than the ones who left. On top of that, rent for a 1/1 was around $1100-1300 for your typical 1/1 condo in 2011. Today, the same unit will rent for $2k-2200. Even adjusting for inflation, it would be higher than $1100-1300. Renting has no tax benefit, so rent is purely driven by supply and demand.
So, my thesis is, yes, net migration might be negative, however, the people moving here are wealthier than the people who are leaving. Those people who leave wouldn’t be able to afford to buy anyways, so they wouldn’t affect the housing price. So, that’s why even though you have outward migration, you still have rising housing price.
