Just noticed the post two up about layoffs. Im not gonna talk about layoffs because thats outside my realm but the idea there are widespread 7-10K mortgages is pretty suspect. A $1M loan at 7% is $6600. Up until the last couple years loans above that were still fairly rare and most taken out at much lower rates. In CA about 80% of mortgages are at 4% or lower. A $1M mortgage between 2.5% and 4% is $4 to 5K/month. Still a big nut but not $7 -10K.
In my hood of 1000+ homes only 16 homes sold this year which is about 1/3rd of normal. Sales volume is very low here and everywhere around town. Of those a quick check shows maybe half are $1M plus loans. So 8 homes this year. Sure there could be layoffs but even if all were subject to layoffs that just isnt impacting the market materially. And we have seen there are tools to fight this. Those folks still came in with big down payments and could be put in a 10/1 or 5/1 interest only loan to weather the storm. I just dont see a big distressed market happening anytime soon
