After two more years, I suspect we’ll be in the inflation noise part of the trough, I suspect the most damage will be done quickly this time because of what is propping the housing market up. Our curve is going to look flat in ’06, falls of a cliff in the first part of ’07 and ’08 and then flattens.
However I don’t know if you’ll ever see those numbers published. I think you’ll be able to get a home for half of today, but I think the numbers that are published will be fudged in a variety of ways to keep the appearance of the bubble collapse from being apparent.
After seeing the change from the association on affordability, I’m comfident there are many ways for them to distort the numbers.
Things such as switching from median to average (mean). Using a “seasonally” adjusted price… etc.
Also, the realtors are starting to push sellers to offer “comps”, not comparables, complimentaries as a way of lowering the cost while maintaining the “price”.
