[quote=4plexowner]the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least
that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)
I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment
[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]
I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles
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before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found[/quote]
One thing I would add here is, I think a lot of people on this board keep comparing this bubble to (thinking is like) 1991-1997 .
This bubble is nothing like 1991-1997, in that burst a large part of the industry picked up and left taking a lot of the most talented people in the region with them. That’s not happening this time.
I would guess that when the economy turns, the market will SLOWLY start to recover, That being said I would think by 2017 we would be back close to peak price …
OK everyone go ahead take your best shot ,,, Just kidding.
