4-S is a nice area and has a lot going for it, so does Rancho Bernardo, Scripps, Poway and much of 56 corridor. The reason 4-S gets alot of attention on these boards as a place to watch in the downturn is that most of it was purchased during the bubble years when almost all the financing was toxic or near toxic and is more susceptible to distress. Most of the owners of the homes owe a large percentage of their value and some if not many will become upside down which is not the case in the older upscale areas. Most, not all of the owners in the older areas are sitting on enough equity to easily ride things out and have comfortable fixed payments. Residential real estate pricing has a lot to do with comps and comps are decided based on proximity. IMO, 4-S has the greatest propensity to overshoot the downside in the coming year or years that other higer end areas just based on when it was built and financed. Buying in 4-S now would be a terrible mistake but keeping your eye on it over the next 24 months would be very wise indeed.
