similar sq footage, 3bd/2.5ba SFR sold for $415k on 6/2003, you may be right about 500-550k as the 2004 comp.
why do you say $375k is unlikely? the current asking price for this property is $644k which is around the median price in OC. Are you implying that the median price in OC will hit bottom at $450k? I seriously doubt it.
Historically median prices have always aligned to 2.5 times median income and about 3 times in premium markets like OC. At the median being somewhere around $70k in South OC I see the median aligning back to around $200-250k or so.
