If I understand your strategy correctly, then for your strategy to work (to work well, anyway), nominal prices must drop. There is, in my maybe-better-informed-than-average-but-no-expert opinion, a decent chance that the downside of this peak (whenever it peaks, whether that’s now or in a year or more) will result in a drop in real prices but not nominal prices. Or maybe a small drop in nominal prices.
There’s also a decent chance it will result in a significant enough nominal price drop that your strategy will work. All I’m saying is that, while prices are higher than their historical means (by most or all measures), and they will almost certainly revert to historical means, that doesn’t necessarily mean that there will be significant nominal price drops. And even if there are, timing them can be tricky.
On the other hand, if you want to move to San Diego, then the importance of how much money you make or lose should be weighed against the importance of moving to San Diego. As a person who thinks San Diego is the best place in the world to live (if I had billions of dollars, I wouldn’t move more than a couple of miles), I say it’s worth the risk and worth the money.
If you’re going to take that risk, now seems (in my opinion) like as good a time as any.
