2003 was not a dead cat bounce. Those people acted on fears, not data. Nothing you have said so far disproves my theory.
Disproving or proving my theory would require data of months inventory from the last cycle. Without that, only time will tell.
I was told that real estate is a slow moving ship. It moves in one direction, and takes many months to peak and turn. This time, the market softened in 2004, and it wasn’t until TWO YEARS later, in summer 2006, that the median went down. But months inventory changed already in 2004. It has not done any dead cat bounce since then. Inventory has been climbing steadily from 3,000 in march 04 to 6,000 in June 04 to 12,000 in Sept 04 to 23,000 today.
Perhaps you could find an example of where the inventory dipped and rose again since 2004. Then if you find that, we can check the sales and go further with this test.
Real estate moves very slow. It is not like stocks at all. No dead cat bounce.
You can have variations in new housing starts, permits, and all the stuff that manufacturers do to vary their work flows. But consumer demand and supply seems to be a very slow sticky type of thing.
Of course, if I am wrong, I want to be corrected, but all the things that people have written above, is not disproving my theory at all. Saying that I can’t possibly be right is not proof of anything.
Similarly, I cannot prove my theory without the data. So we are on even ground.
All I can say is that I will use this model to time my purchase.
