$200/barrel oil — under this scenario: Israel can’t wipe out Hizbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s failure causes Iran to become more emboldened. Iran can spread its influence even more among Shi’ites in Iraq and Shi’ites in the oil producing region of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi princes can’t really do anything about it because there are too many Shi’ites in this region without destabilizing the country, so Shi’ites, with Iran’s help, can control the oil in Saudi Arabia. It’s just one scenario, but man, it’s scary.
