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14 years ago

You know, I was wondering how
You know, I was wondering how accurate your proxy estimate had turned out to be. Glad you posted this. Using ocular regression, it looks like your proxy estimate has been, on average, about 65%-70% accurate, which is pretty good considering its simplicity.

14 years ago

Good analysis Rich.
Time lags

Good analysis Rich.
Time lags are widely misunderstood and greatly underrated in importance. Using your graphs, it can easily be projected that the rebound in both average prices and PPSF will continue their recovery for the next few months.
But there is another time lag involved, that could be called the transaction decision. Before those sales closed in August, there was an escrow period of perhaps a month, preceeded by a search, select, and negotiatiate period, preceeded by a “Let’s consider buying” period. Cumulatively this could all total 3 – 6 months, making the trough in your graph much earlier than shown.

14 years ago

Dude. You got the sign (+/-)
Dude. You got the sign (+/-) right 100% of the time. That’s good enough for me.

14 years ago

Insert obsequious comment
Insert obsequious comment here.