December 2017 Housing Graphs

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 28, 2018 - 6:14pm



































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Submitted by Escoguy on January 31, 2018 - 11:00pm.

Will be interesting to see if the inventory continues to drop, my money says yes for now.

I do wonder at times if very long term residents end of life will ever cause inventory to rise in a meaningful amount.

Submitted by gzz on February 1, 2018 - 7:59pm.

Is the long-term inventory drop more dramatic for houses than condos? Seems like it would be.

Submitted by ocrenter on February 4, 2018 - 5:11pm.

Rich, any idea how the inventory was during the last normal cyclical peak? (The peak prior to the bubble peak).

Submitted by gzz on February 4, 2018 - 6:07pm.

Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.

Submitted by bewildering on February 4, 2018 - 11:10pm.

10-year Treasury up to 2.85. Mortgage rates up to 4.5%.

Last time we reached these 'high' levels was 2013-14. And the consequence can be observed on the graphs. There was an increase in inventory.

Prices in 2013-4 were still low.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 5, 2018 - 3:47pm.

ocrenter wrote:
Rich, any idea how the inventory was during the last normal cyclical peak? (The peak prior to the bubble peak).

Hi ocrenter, good to hear from you. Unfortunately, I don't have inventory info going that far back. As gzz noted, the prior cyclical peak before the big bubble was in 1990... quite a long time ago at this point!

Submitted by ocrenter on February 5, 2018 - 11:13pm.

gzz wrote:
Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.

SD may be different compared to prior, but the inventory is tight in multiple markets... the tight inventory is not because of local factors.

Just wondering if this type of ultra tight inventory is typical of prior peaks.

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