Last pre-bubble peak? I think Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.
gzz wrote:Last pre-bubble [quote=gzz]Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.[/quote]
SD may be different compared to prior, but the inventory is tight in multiple markets… the tight inventory is not because of local factors.
Just wondering if this type of ultra tight inventory is typical of prior peaks.
ocrenter wrote:gzz wrote:Last [quote=ocrenter][quote=gzz]Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.[/quote]
SD may be different compared to prior, but the inventory is tight in multiple markets… the tight inventory is not because of local factors.
Just wondering if this type of ultra tight inventory is typical of prior peaks.[/quote]
This is a fantastic question. Many of us who have followed the market via this website since the beginning ’04/’05 are likely seeing current prices as another peak. And since many of us are now on the other side of the Landed Poor, we likely try to guard against the bias we saw from homeowners during the last bubble. The obvious path is to simply follow the data.
The current inventory data suggests another year of upward pressure on prices. The economy is humming. I’m not hearing/seeing stories of loose underwriting or anecdotes of bartenders owning 4 homes.
My question is: Are most/many of us so conditioned to believe that current home prices are “high” and thus we’re at a peak, that we’re ignoring the underlying data that suggests prices are going to continue to surge higher for the near future?
Crazy money for that place and it is still on. There is another place for 900k on jutland, which just seems too expensive for a place with few upgrades, but I guess it has a view.
ocrenter wrote:Rich, any idea [quote=ocrenter]Rich, any idea how the inventory was during the last normal cyclical peak? (The peak prior to the bubble peak).[/quote]
Hi ocrenter, good to hear from you. Unfortunately, I don’t have inventory info going that far back. As gzz noted, the prior cyclical peak before the big bubble was in 1990… quite a long time ago at this point!
bewildering
8 years ago
10-year Treasury up to 2.85. 10-year Treasury up to 2.85. Mortgage rates up to 4.5%.
Last time we reached these ‘high’ levels was 2013-14. And the consequence can be observed on the graphs. There was an increase in inventory.
Prices in 2013-4 were still low.
sdduuuude
8 years ago
I stopped by to see if I I stopped by to see if I could find a recent chart of rents vs. housing prices.
Seems that was a critical indicator of bubble conditions.
Realtors telling me that rents are flying as well as prices so maybe not as bubbly as we might think from just looking at prices.
Hey sdduuuude, good to hear
Hey sdduuuude, good to hear from you.
Have been real busy, and not sure when I will update all the numbers. But I can tell you that it won’t look all that different from last year. Rents have indeed been very strong. The price to income-rent ratios will have crept up a wee bit but not by much at all. The monthly payment ratios will have gone up a bit more due to rising rates but nothing crazy.
Here it is from last year… I’ll update it when I can.
Will be interesting to see if
Will be interesting to see if the inventory continues to drop, my money says yes for now.
I do wonder at times if very long term residents end of life will ever cause inventory to rise in a meaningful amount.
Is the long-term inventory
Is the long-term inventory drop more dramatic for houses than condos? Seems like it would be.
Rich, any idea how the
Rich, any idea how the inventory was during the last normal cyclical peak? (The peak prior to the bubble peak).
Last pre-bubble peak? I think
Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.
gzz wrote:Last pre-bubble
[quote=gzz]Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.[/quote]
SD may be different compared to prior, but the inventory is tight in multiple markets… the tight inventory is not because of local factors.
Just wondering if this type of ultra tight inventory is typical of prior peaks.
ocrenter wrote:gzz wrote:Last
[quote=ocrenter][quote=gzz]Last pre-bubble peak? I think that was like 1990. So long ago San Diego was different city. No huge downtown market, no Qualcomm and biotech jobs, no gentrification of Hillcrest/North Park/Ocean Beach, bunch of close in suburbs getting built at a fast pace, much of economy linked to the Navy.[/quote]
SD may be different compared to prior, but the inventory is tight in multiple markets… the tight inventory is not because of local factors.
Just wondering if this type of ultra tight inventory is typical of prior peaks.[/quote]
This is a fantastic question. Many of us who have followed the market via this website since the beginning ’04/’05 are likely seeing current prices as another peak. And since many of us are now on the other side of the Landed Poor, we likely try to guard against the bias we saw from homeowners during the last bubble. The obvious path is to simply follow the data.
The current inventory data suggests another year of upward pressure on prices. The economy is humming. I’m not hearing/seeing stories of loose underwriting or anecdotes of bartenders owning 4 homes.
My question is: Are most/many of us so conditioned to believe that current home prices are “high” and thus we’re at a peak, that we’re ignoring the underlying data that suggests prices are going to continue to surge higher for the near future?
Inventory is really low in
Inventory is really low in Bay Ho. Reasonably priced places are gone immediately. This one did not even have an open house:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4040-Forney-Ave-92117/home/5149835
IMO overpriced places are gone within weeks.
There are few places on sale for ridiculous amounts and they sit. Like a 2/1 in Stonehaven for 865K.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4432-Caminito-Cuarzo-92117/home/4949432
Crazy money for that place and it is still on. There is another place for 900k on jutland, which just seems too expensive for a place with few upgrades, but I guess it has a view.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4514-Jutland-Pl-92117/home/4950982
ocrenter wrote:Rich, any idea
[quote=ocrenter]Rich, any idea how the inventory was during the last normal cyclical peak? (The peak prior to the bubble peak).[/quote]
Hi ocrenter, good to hear from you. Unfortunately, I don’t have inventory info going that far back. As gzz noted, the prior cyclical peak before the big bubble was in 1990… quite a long time ago at this point!
10-year Treasury up to 2.85.
10-year Treasury up to 2.85. Mortgage rates up to 4.5%.
Last time we reached these ‘high’ levels was 2013-14. And the consequence can be observed on the graphs. There was an increase in inventory.
Prices in 2013-4 were still low.
I stopped by to see if I
I stopped by to see if I could find a recent chart of rents vs. housing prices.
Seems that was a critical indicator of bubble conditions.
Realtors telling me that rents are flying as well as prices so maybe not as bubbly as we might think from just looking at prices.
Any chance you could drum up one of those, Rich ?
Hey sdduuuude, good to hear
Hey sdduuuude, good to hear from you.
Have been real busy, and not sure when I will update all the numbers. But I can tell you that it won’t look all that different from last year. Rents have indeed been very strong. The price to income-rent ratios will have crept up a wee bit but not by much at all. The monthly payment ratios will have gone up a bit more due to rising rates but nothing crazy.
Here it is from last year… I’ll update it when I can.
https://piggington.com/valuation_update_bonus_graphs