I think it’s funny that the folks at the North County Times have created a "Bottom calling" tag in their new business blog.
The titular bottom-calling in their inaugural post for the new category was made by longtime DataQuick pundit John Karevoll. In addition to opining that sales volume had already hit bottom, Karevoll said:
“I’m pretty sure we’re at or very close to the bottom here in true values. The only thing that could throw things out of whack is if there is a nasty recession or a year or two of nasty inflation that would push interest rates up and prices would have to come down. But I don’t see either one of those happening, so I think we’re very close to the bottom.”
Karevoll was pretty circumspect — in addition to the disclaimers above, he noted that the market is likely to "drag along the bottom for a while.”
Nonetheless, this is a fairly bold call.
continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org
August 21, 2008 @ 3:59 PM
I dont know much about
I dont know much about Karevoll, but if you look at some of his comments in the last few years, he’s seems to be a “cheerleader”.
How about this one from about a year ago?
2007-08-14: San Diego new-home sales hit lowest point in five years
“Most of the declines in San Diego have happened,” Karevoll said. “Now it appears to be re-establishing a balance that we have yet to see for the (Southern California) region.”
For more select quotes of his, go to :
http://realestaterecord.blogspot.com/2008/01/john-karevoll.html
Wouldnt put too much stock in what he says without a lot of hard evidence to back it up. I guess that goes for everyone, though.
August 21, 2008 @ 4:06 PM
You just beat me to it
You just beat me to it peterb. But I think having two immediate post using the same quote illustrates the point perfectly!
August 21, 2008 @ 4:46 PM
Yes, I just finished reading
Yes, I just finished reading through the blogs website I posted. The guy is very impeachable!!
I think that Rich must know this and is being politically correct about stating the obvious. Or maybe more to the point is the nature of the newspaper itself?
August 21, 2008 @ 10:48 PM
I have noticed that, too! I
I have noticed that, too! I wonder what Karevoll’s motivation is? I thought his type was supposed to be extremely objective – not constantly bullish on the real estate market. Maybe he just can’t interpret the data? Pretty scary.
August 22, 2008 @ 12:34 PM
Here’s a quote from Karevoll
Here’s a quote from Karevoll in April of this year. It could be the most ridiculous quote I’ve ever seen on real estate.
“He predicted that San Diego’s overall median may slip another $45,000 and bottom out at around $350,000. If that happens between now and summer, I think there is also an equal chance that the median could go back over $500,000 by the end of the year,” he said. “That’s how crazy it is out there.”
That comment appears in this article:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080416-9999-1n16housing.html
In the first reader comment (by Keith at 7:01 a.m.) I take Karevoll to task and also point out the sloppy journalism by Roger Showley. I exchanged emails with Roger for a few months, trying to figure out whether he’s biased or just a very poor journalist. Never did figure out for sure which it is. But if he actually was aware of the depth of trouble in the housing market even as he wrote rosy articles, he sure did a good job of playing stupid in his emails. Meaning that he came off as a stupid, lazy weak journalist and not necessarily as biased.
As for Karevoll, he consistently puts a rosy spin on the data. Although I don’t know if you can call the above quote “rosy spin” so much as flat-out nuttiness. If he wanted anyone to believe that quote, he should’ve thrown in, “these aren’t the droids you’re looking for.”
August 21, 2008 @ 4:03 PM
Karevoll is a Shill plain and
Karevoll is a Shill plain and simple. He called a bottom exactly this time last year as discussed here at Piggington
http://piggington.com/dataquick_weve_hit_the_bottom_of_the_post_boom
“Submitted by Alex_angel on August 14, 2007 – 6:54am.
From article
DataQuick analyst John Karevoll interpreted the prices and sales as a sign that San Diego real estate may be nearing the bottom of the post-boom period.
“Most of the declines in San Diego have happened,” Karevoll said. “Now it appears to be re-establishing a balance that we have yet to see for the (Southern California) region.””
Need I say more!
Rich, much to Karevoll’s detriment you really have one of the best search features of all the blogs.
August 22, 2008 @ 10:23 AM
Given the nature of
Given the nature of Dataquicks business and supposed unbias reporting of realestate facts. Which they seem to do…..it seems odd they would let this guy repeatedly make stupid remarks that proves him to be completely incorrect time and time again. He does not add credibility to their business. Unless I am missing something, like who pays for Dataquicks survival, maybe he’s related to ownership or management? More than likely, Dataquick is mostly funded by the NAR or some other real estate organization and thus demand that Dataquick have a cheerleader in-house that spouts positive spin every so often. As usual, if you want to understand the motivation, follow the money and consider the source.
August 25, 2008 @ 12:50 PM
My guess is a lot of these
My guess is a lot of these data-mining houses sell their detailed findings to the big-wigs in the RE industry so there’s always a financial incentive for the researcher to spin it positively for the person subsidizing their work. It makes sense, even though they end up sounding like naive bubble-era Realtor’s with pom-poms.
I think the new Case Shiller numbers come out tomorrow, where I’d expect to see some more big drops. Of course they will be blamed on foreclosures instead of the fact that prices are still too high, and mounting job losses are adding even more downward pressure.
August 25, 2008 @ 9:07 PM
If there’s a bulk asset
If there’s a bulk asset sell-off like Mr Mortgage thinks may be in the works later this Fall….it’s gonna be a huge down turn. But even with the known negatives it’s going to be ugly.
August 26, 2008 @ 6:08 PM
Cramer is calling a bottom.
Cramer is calling a bottom. 309 days from now. Count on it, after all he claims to have called the top back in 2005.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26406036
Once that happens it will be the third quarter of 2009, and Cramer thinks he thesis will be apparent to everyone by then. So here’s the countdown: 309 days until June 30, 2009 – the deadline for a much-needed housing bottom.
September 1, 2008 @ 1:28 PM
For curiosity sake, I created
For curiosity sake, I created a public opinion poll to get educated guesses on the “Bottom of the San Diego Housing Market” and most of the current 110 respondants came from a link posted on sdlookup.
The survey is still open if you’d like to participate, (1 response per IP), Click Here to take survey
For those who are interested in the results,
Downloadable/Filterable Survey Data
You can filter responses, download the data – whatever. (the survey is still open, so my summary below represents a snapshot from today and of course, these results may color any future responses).
1) The median response for the San Diego real estate market bottom is Jan, 2010
2) 14 self-proclaimed real estate professional salespeople/brokers/financers/prop mngrs/investors took the survey – their median for timing the bottom is slightly more bearish than the informed public, not seeing the bottom until April, 2010, and 4 out of the 14 don’t see the bottom until 2012/2013
3) The average price cut is in the vicinity of 30-40% regardless of market from peak to bottom pricing
4) 14 people think that the bottom won’t be until at least 2012.
5) Oh, and of course, most people try to stay informed about real estate (74.5% of those who answered that question) and are looking to buy during the down market (64.9%).