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  1. sdcellar
    February 2, 2007 @ 12:43 PM

    Rich– I pretty much agree
    Rich– I pretty much agree with your analysis completely, right down to your final point that these factors will show up in the prices. I just wonder how much of that will show up in the median.

    Not sure that it matters and thanks to your work and that of others, we know that median is a flawed statistic, but it does seem that if it does decline significantly, it will further increase the growing awareness among the general public regarding the direction of real estate.

    The one bit I hadn’t been thinking about too much are the vacancy statistics, especially with regard to available and recently sold home inventory. Definitely interesting, thanks!

  2. highpacific
    February 2, 2007 @ 5:09 PM

    zero net change on vancancy
    zero net change on vancancy theory

    Very interesting article. I am wondering one thing about vacancies. Unless the buyer is moving out of someone elses home ( Mom and Dad’s for example) or immigrating into the area it leaves another vacancy in its place. Either a rental or another home. Basically a no net change situation. So my theory is that if immigration is declining then vacancies stays flat or goes up.

    Does anyone who understands the complexities care to comment?


  3. Anonymous
    February 2, 2007 @ 5:53 PM

    I would think that as
    I would think that as construction jobs decrease, the illegals (or even legals) who hold them might go home and wait for things to pick up.

    • ibjames
      February 5, 2007 @ 8:35 AM

      Nice to see a just for
      Nice to see a just for piggington post again, but I’m sure we all understand if you are busy 😉

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