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  • August 18, 2007 at 2:42 PM #9931
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    I thought it would be interesting to try to capture some data to illustrate the sticky on the way down scenario. Without spending to much time, I wanted to use a sample zip code that was fairly built out. I gathered data for detached homes only and for sales on the MLS, I used the averages as well.

    Interesting results.

    Solds Beds SF List Price Sale Price DOM
    1998 693 3 1,970 $283,445 $276,412 34
    1999 781 3 1,956 $309,210 $300,754 37
    2000 695 3 1,994 $362,272 $351,197 34
    2001 691 3 1,958 $396,031 $382,275 41
    2002 836 3 1,991 $435,459 $422,543 36
    2003 891 3 2,011 $508,525 $494,881 30
    2004 674 3 1,981 $627,167 $611,795 28
    2005 629 3 1,997 $681,922 $656,005 46
    2006 517 3 1,960 $656,820 $626,654 63
    2007 508 3 2,026 $664,282 $637,834 51

    Now 2007 is extrapolated. I took the results of 2007 from the beginning of the year until 7/1/07 and multiplied by 2. It is very optimistic to extrapolate in that manner though because we are now in the slow part of the sales season so I do not expect the number of sold properties in 2008 to meet 508.

    Anyways, take the data for what it is worth. Maybe it backs up some peoples claims that a 3500 sf home in 4S will go to 400k maybe it does not.

    I didn’t want to use 92127 as an example because their has been so many new homes built there during this timeframe.

    I guess if a 3500 sf home in 4S sells for 400k then that would mean that a 2000 sf in Sabre Springs would sell for what, 275k?

    Anyways I am just posting the data for people to see it for what it is without bias or conjecture.

    August 18, 2007 at 3:12 PM #77635
    NotCranky
    Participant

    It sure looks sticky but it could also be indicative of someting like the big “ship turning” analogy. It undocks slowly takes a while to get up to speed turns back very slowy gets up to speed and docks slowly. We will need several more years to see what happens.

    Price variability in no way is proportionate to ammenities. IMO the inventory doesn’t fit the real wealth spreads in our society (there are too many (600-800k and up houses). I think that post correction a relatively small increase in price will net a substaintially improved combination of location and ammenities especially as related to size of house.

    August 18, 2007 at 3:12 PM #77783
    NotCranky
    Participant

    It sure looks sticky but it could also be indicative of someting like the big “ship turning” analogy. It undocks slowly takes a while to get up to speed turns back very slowy gets up to speed and docks slowly. We will need several more years to see what happens.

    Price variability in no way is proportionate to ammenities. IMO the inventory doesn’t fit the real wealth spreads in our society (there are too many (600-800k and up houses). I think that post correction a relatively small increase in price will net a substaintially improved combination of location and ammenities especially as related to size of house.

    August 18, 2007 at 3:12 PM #77758
    NotCranky
    Participant

    It sure looks sticky but it could also be indicative of someting like the big “ship turning” analogy. It undocks slowly takes a while to get up to speed turns back very slowy gets up to speed and docks slowly. We will need several more years to see what happens.

    Price variability in no way is proportionate to ammenities. IMO the inventory doesn’t fit the real wealth spreads in our society (there are too many (600-800k and up houses). I think that post correction a relatively small increase in price will net a substaintially improved combination of location and ammenities especially as related to size of house.

    August 18, 2007 at 3:37 PM #77641
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    That could very well be. I guess we will see.

    What I would commit to is that the 2007 volume will most likely fall in the 400’s somewhere. There were 254 solds in the first 6 months of this year. There were 45 solds in the month of July so that brings it up to 295….I think we will most likely fall in the mid 400s somewhere, not 508 as the not so accurate estimation predicts. I dont think the sales price will move to much…Like I said, I guess we will see.

    I want to post a more hard hit area…to see some differences. This should be your assignment but I will do it. You are still overdue to create a monitor for the central part of town… I will take my payment for your contracting services when I buy a beater home… heheheh

    August 18, 2007 at 3:37 PM #77764
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    That could very well be. I guess we will see.

    What I would commit to is that the 2007 volume will most likely fall in the 400’s somewhere. There were 254 solds in the first 6 months of this year. There were 45 solds in the month of July so that brings it up to 295….I think we will most likely fall in the mid 400s somewhere, not 508 as the not so accurate estimation predicts. I dont think the sales price will move to much…Like I said, I guess we will see.

    I want to post a more hard hit area…to see some differences. This should be your assignment but I will do it. You are still overdue to create a monitor for the central part of town… I will take my payment for your contracting services when I buy a beater home… heheheh

    August 18, 2007 at 3:37 PM #77789
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    That could very well be. I guess we will see.

    What I would commit to is that the 2007 volume will most likely fall in the 400’s somewhere. There were 254 solds in the first 6 months of this year. There were 45 solds in the month of July so that brings it up to 295….I think we will most likely fall in the mid 400s somewhere, not 508 as the not so accurate estimation predicts. I dont think the sales price will move to much…Like I said, I guess we will see.

    I want to post a more hard hit area…to see some differences. This should be your assignment but I will do it. You are still overdue to create a monitor for the central part of town… I will take my payment for your contracting services when I buy a beater home… heheheh

    August 18, 2007 at 3:53 PM #77770
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Here is 91913…known for its high foreclosure rate!

    Solds Beds SF List Price Sale Price DOM
    1998 126 3 1,906 $220,462 $216,030 50
    1999 145 3 1,896 $234,286 $240,811 44
    2000 154 3 1,891 $256,477 $267,447 39
    2001 185 3 1,985 $310,538 $305,212 35
    2002 373 3 2,105 $373,721 $367,139 34
    2003 484 3 2,135 $461,312 $452,168 44
    2004 573 3 2,155 $601,669 $592,394 27
    2005 552 3 2,223 $682,382 $666,168 54
    2006 326 3 2,188 $666,692 $648,720 72
    2007 248 3 2,166 $616,286 $601,906 77

    Again, 2007 was a generous estimate at least from the volume point of view. Through the first six months this year there were 124 total sales. So in what I would call a very very optimistic estimate volume is down more then 50% from 2005 but pricing is off only 10%. Pricing should be gapping down substantially fairly soon…

    If you want to live in 91913…

    August 18, 2007 at 3:53 PM #77647
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Here is 91913…known for its high foreclosure rate!

    Solds Beds SF List Price Sale Price DOM
    1998 126 3 1,906 $220,462 $216,030 50
    1999 145 3 1,896 $234,286 $240,811 44
    2000 154 3 1,891 $256,477 $267,447 39
    2001 185 3 1,985 $310,538 $305,212 35
    2002 373 3 2,105 $373,721 $367,139 34
    2003 484 3 2,135 $461,312 $452,168 44
    2004 573 3 2,155 $601,669 $592,394 27
    2005 552 3 2,223 $682,382 $666,168 54
    2006 326 3 2,188 $666,692 $648,720 72
    2007 248 3 2,166 $616,286 $601,906 77

    Again, 2007 was a generous estimate at least from the volume point of view. Through the first six months this year there were 124 total sales. So in what I would call a very very optimistic estimate volume is down more then 50% from 2005 but pricing is off only 10%. Pricing should be gapping down substantially fairly soon…

    If you want to live in 91913…

    August 18, 2007 at 3:53 PM #77795
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Here is 91913…known for its high foreclosure rate!

    Solds Beds SF List Price Sale Price DOM
    1998 126 3 1,906 $220,462 $216,030 50
    1999 145 3 1,896 $234,286 $240,811 44
    2000 154 3 1,891 $256,477 $267,447 39
    2001 185 3 1,985 $310,538 $305,212 35
    2002 373 3 2,105 $373,721 $367,139 34
    2003 484 3 2,135 $461,312 $452,168 44
    2004 573 3 2,155 $601,669 $592,394 27
    2005 552 3 2,223 $682,382 $666,168 54
    2006 326 3 2,188 $666,692 $648,720 72
    2007 248 3 2,166 $616,286 $601,906 77

    Again, 2007 was a generous estimate at least from the volume point of view. Through the first six months this year there were 124 total sales. So in what I would call a very very optimistic estimate volume is down more then 50% from 2005 but pricing is off only 10%. Pricing should be gapping down substantially fairly soon…

    If you want to live in 91913…

    August 18, 2007 at 4:02 PM #77653
    NotCranky
    Participant

    “You are still overdue to create a monitor for the central part of town… ” LOL. The way I understand it that was something you volunteered me for. My assignment as I see it, is much different :). Actually,no offense to anyone, I can’t believe that I am still here regularly.

    August 18, 2007 at 4:02 PM #77776
    NotCranky
    Participant

    “You are still overdue to create a monitor for the central part of town… ” LOL. The way I understand it that was something you volunteered me for. My assignment as I see it, is much different :). Actually,no offense to anyone, I can’t believe that I am still here regularly.

    August 18, 2007 at 4:02 PM #77801
    NotCranky
    Participant

    “You are still overdue to create a monitor for the central part of town… ” LOL. The way I understand it that was something you volunteered me for. My assignment as I see it, is much different :). Actually,no offense to anyone, I can’t believe that I am still here regularly.

    August 18, 2007 at 4:09 PM #77659
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Hey man… you are semi-retired anyways. darn right I volunteered you chief!

    SD Realtor

    August 18, 2007 at 4:09 PM #77782
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Hey man… you are semi-retired anyways. darn right I volunteered you chief!

    SD Realtor

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