I agree with that assessment – there are still some suckers who are buying the NARs party line. That last remaining shred of credibility will run out once Spring 2008 proves to be even worse that Spring 2007.

At the end of 2006 we were predicting the the 3Q 2007 would be when things started moving in earnest. It happened a little ahead of schedule but only because it was helped along a little by the premature unravelling of the Bear-Stearns funds.

However, all pretenses at the quick recovery will be abandoned once the spring 2008 seasons proves to be a bust. I that by the fall of 2008 the streets will be running red and we’re going to see some really shocking price movement. I think that’s when we’re going to see the majority of movement in this downcycle; after that the price declines will just bleed out.