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  • July 12, 2007 at 12:25 PM #9496
    cr
    Participant

    In what as far as I know is his debut propagan… I mean, “prediction” Lawrence Yun makes the below factual, data-backed, airtight, unequivocal, all-encompassing declaration. From MSN.
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    Updated: 8:13 a.m. PT July 11, 2007
    WASHINGTON – The prices of existing and new homes are expected to bounce back next year after a dreary 2007, a real estate trade group said Wednesday.

    The National Association of Realtors also said it expects existing-home sales to rise to nearly 6.4 million in 2008, up from the 2007 estimate of more than 6.1 million. Nearly 6.5 million existing homes were sold in 2006, the association said.

    As for new homes, sales are projected at 865,000 in 2007 and 878,000 next year, but the 2008 projection would still be down more than 20 percent compared with the nearly 1.1 million new homes sold in 2006.

    More than 1.4 million housing starts, including multifamily units, are forecast this year and in 2008, but that is down from 1.8 million last year.

    Existing-home prices are expected to gain 1.8 percent to a median of $222,700 in 2008 after a 1.4 percent decline this year to $218,800, the according said. The median new-home price should rise 2.2 percent to $222,700 next year after a 2.6 percent drop to $240,100 in 2007.

    “Markets that sharply reduce new construction in 2007 will generally experience respectable price increases in 2008,” Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said in a release. “Buyers now have an overwhelming advantage given the wide selection of homes available in many markets. But with profit margins coming under pressure, homebuilders will limit new construction well into 2008.”

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    I’d really like to ask Mr. Yun one question about his claim prices will rise: Based on what?

    – The number of ARMs about to reset?
    – Rising interest rates?
    – Inflation compared to wage increases?
    – The performance of MBS hedge funds?
    – The purchasing power of the dollar?
    – The average savings rate of American households?

    Did I forget anything?

    July 12, 2007 at 3:17 PM #65536
    stansd
    Participant

    I find it a bit interesting that the ’08 increase and the ’07 decrease are almost identical. Pretty good marketing line to say you’ll be ahead in a years time. Even the johnny come lately S&P economists are forecasting an 8% decline between ’06 & ’08.

    At least David Lereah was smart…he got out before it got really ugly…we should take squares on how long until Mr Yun resigns…I’ll give him 1.5 years from today. Lereah was savvy enough in most cases to make prognostications that were devoid of facts…Yun is citing more facts to back up his ridiculous forecasts…this will come back to bite.

    http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2007/pi20070710_101838_page_2.htm

    Stan

    July 12, 2007 at 3:17 PM #65599
    stansd
    Participant

    I find it a bit interesting that the ’08 increase and the ’07 decrease are almost identical. Pretty good marketing line to say you’ll be ahead in a years time. Even the johnny come lately S&P economists are forecasting an 8% decline between ’06 & ’08.

    At least David Lereah was smart…he got out before it got really ugly…we should take squares on how long until Mr Yun resigns…I’ll give him 1.5 years from today. Lereah was savvy enough in most cases to make prognostications that were devoid of facts…Yun is citing more facts to back up his ridiculous forecasts…this will come back to bite.

    http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2007/pi20070710_101838_page_2.htm

    Stan

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