- This topic has 52 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 6 months ago by sdrealtor.
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May 14, 2007 at 2:18 PM #9079May 14, 2007 at 2:43 PM #52804sdrealtorParticipant
Foreclosures were never for lower-end areas only. When you see several dozen there it will mean something.
May 14, 2007 at 3:18 PM #52808PerryChaseParticipantThat’s a nice house. I like the modern style. You’d think that someone paying $2.5 million would not let his house foreclose 1.5 years later.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076038397-1521_Nautilus_St_La_Jolla_CA_92037
May 14, 2007 at 9:32 PM #52847AnonymousGuestForeclosures are not just for lower-end neighborhoods, nor are 50% cuts in prices:
During the last upturn/downturn:
Median price for a resale home in La Jolla peaked at $840K in August 1990
Median price for a resale home in La Jolla troughed at $395K in November 1994I know, I know, we can’t possibly have a 50% cut in prices (again) for resale homes in nice neighborhoods. It’s different this time.
Balderdash.
May 14, 2007 at 9:51 PM #52848NotCrankyParticipantI remember a pretty nice house in Bird Rock going to the court house steps at 165k. I don’t know what it went for but those were indeed crazy times. I do know this huge craftsman in Kensington went for 125K, bid all the way up from 110K, no additional encumbrances. There was a publication I think it was called the San Diego Transcript. I’d like to see Auctions go out of fashion quickly and the San Diego Transcript chock full of houses in Bird Rock soon.Its amazing we are talking about a period between 10 and 15 years ago. I think the Macaroni is about to hit the fan.
May 14, 2007 at 10:18 PM #52850JWM in SDParticipantWOW, I remember seeing that place get built back in 05 when the wife and I were hanging out in LaJolla every weekend. I remember wondering who was building that place.
Have to admit, that is one nice place…damn.
May 14, 2007 at 10:44 PM #52852sdrealtorParticipantjg,
Just a thought but could you be mining out of the data what you want to happen? I beleive that there was a big decline in the early 90’s but I think your greater than 50% decline is a data blip and hoping for another may leave you a bit wistful.I have nothing whatsoever to substantiate this but I suspect what you are looking at is a flaw in the median. I’d love to see the data sets and sample sizes capable of substaianting a drop of 50% in the last cycle. I suspect the owners of higher priced homes in La Jolla were more likely in better financial shape than the owners of lower end homes and just didnt sell. I suspect an owner of an oceanfront house or one of many other trophy locations would be far more likely to have creative options as well as huge personal reasons/family history to hang on. I also suspect that volume was miniscule at the trough. I have a hard time believeing you could get a nice place in LJ for under $400k in 1994.
That would be an interesting analytical exercise.
May 14, 2007 at 11:07 PM #52855sdrealtorParticipantJust for kicks, I went back as far as the mls data goes for La Jolla. Here’s some hope for JG:
8,000 sq ft LJ Farms home with ocean views on 1 acre for $1.875M
3700 sq ft 4Br/3Ba single level Muirlands home on 1/3rd acre (15,000 sq ft) with panoramic ocean/bay views for $1.03M
3000 sq ft 5/4.5 Upper Hermosa home with ocean views for $798k
The median for the year out of 270 sales was $480K.
Here’s what you got for $480K, 6BR/4ba, 3500 sq ft on mt Soledad above Kate Sessions with noview. 8 months escrow.
395K got you a 3/2 1300 sq ft Birdrock cottage 6 blocks from the beach.
Could you imagine those prices coming back?
Do you think there would be a few buyers around at those prices?
You never know……….
May 14, 2007 at 11:13 PM #52856PerryChaseParticipantYep, you never know….. sdrealtor, you could be moving from Carlsbad to La Jolla. 🙂
May 14, 2007 at 11:16 PM #52857NotCrankyParticipantThe participant level of this blog is too small to get a good sample of Realtors that were working the last down turn. It would be nice to have a few pop in that were actually doing Volume at the time in these lovely Locations.It seem like %50 was to much for the median drop but maybee not. A near 50% was not uncommon in fact I recall My teacher at Anthony’s that La Jolla was broadly clobbered to the tune of about that.
May 14, 2007 at 11:16 PM #52858NotCrankyParticipantsdr,
sdr I feel like you are in a “Farming” mode and it interferes with your willingness to humor some of the more doom and gloom types and our notions here. For instance you abandoned my critique on your 4 miracle days in CV. Swept it under the table. I wanted to be a gentleman and drop it but you aren’t leveling with everybody here.May 14, 2007 at 11:32 PM #52859poorgradstudentParticipantThanks for the link. God, am I the only one who finds this place a little … ugly? I guess it’s just too modern for my personal tastes. On the other hand, it would be fantastic for entertaining in, so it may have been built with that in mind?
Oh, and what’s with the blood-red stain on the deck in the 3rd picture? It’s a little creepy.
May 14, 2007 at 11:34 PM #52860sdrealtorParticipantRustico,
That was just an exercise in fun for me. Really could you imagine prices like that in La Jolla. I think we’d all buy 1 or 2 at those prices even if we didnt want to live there.Regarding CV, keep your broom out. I didnt ignore your critique on CV. I expounded on it exponentially. Read the Short Sale Monitor. I addressed the state of the market in CV several hours ago. Sorry you missed it but it adds further evidence that CV is cooking right now and has been all spring.
Here’s a little more:
1st two weeks in May for 92130 SFR
New Listings = 22
Fell out of escrow = 4Total added to Inventory = 26
Went into escrow = 23
expired = 8
withdrawn = 5
cancelled = 7Total taken off Inventory = 43
Thats a net decrease of 17 homes
1st two weeks in May for 92130 Attached
New Listings = 23
Fell out of escrow = 2Total added to Inventory = 25
Went into escrow = 22
expired = 5
withdrawn = 8
cancelled = 0Total taken off Inventory = 35
Thats a net decrease of 10 homes
May 15, 2007 at 1:05 AM #52865NotCrankyParticipantsdr
I had been to your monitor earlier and already knew that you didn’t answer my critique of your four miracle days at all. You said your four days were typical. I said if those four days were typical of the recent past the zip would have sold out. I don’t deny there are a few happy seller’s in CV but your smokescreen doesn’t work with me.As far as fun goes, I don’t think it is fun for the people who don’t realize the extent that you are abusing reality. You told jj or what ever his psuedonym is, to subtiante his 1990-1994 median decline in La jolla,knowing how difficult that is becasuse of lack of data and then run back to the blog to flaunt and taunt him with a couple of 1998 or thereabouts prices, that is just cowardly. La Jolla dropped hard and fast and bounced back over the course of those years. These things can fall hard and fast so give up your mantra that it just isn’t going to happen. It might not but you don’t know. I bought a house in 1992 for 39%less than the previous buyer in 1991 and another in 1995 that the buyer didn’t hold title to for a year for 36%off and that was off the MLS.Could you venture a guess as to what that house fell from at the peak? People were doing it left and right from Oceanside to Tijuana. I know the Union Fibune has archives that say the total median decline was 17% so why don’t you go dig that up. Its real credible.By the way ,don’t out me in a fit of vainglorious revenge like you did Poway Seller using the MlS or Board data,if you can figure out a way. I will report you.Your comportment is unbecoming of a professional and another reason I am loathe to call myself a Realtor.May 15, 2007 at 1:19 AM #52866masayakoParticipantSo much difference between “sdrealtor” and “SD Realtor”.
That’s all I have to say.
Masayako
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