So looking at 1985 to 2006, basically, ten years of up bubble pricing and 5 years of down pricing, and calling that “normal” they still conclude that prices are over-valued.

I pulled up Riverside. It shows overvaluatation of almost 70%…..

here is a question about that however – Riverside/San Bernardino as a whole have POCKETS of nice stuff, and PILES Of crap. you have entire zip codes of scumville in these two counties.. then you have nice little spots like Temecula…that are basically outcroppings of the SD market and OC market… 90% of it is upscale, cleancut, etc.

You can’t compare Temecula and say… Perris…or Colton…or Romoland… that would be like comparing Scripps Ranch to some gang infested nasty part of San diego…

so when these “over value” estimates are made..I wonder how it will pan out when you talk about nice areas vs junk.

i can see prices crumbling in Perris. no one wants to live there. I see places like temecula and scripps ranch.. and think.. ok prices may fall… but bottom line is that there WILL be people with money who want to live in these places…. so while prices may fall… i dont’ necessarily see Scripps or nice parts of Temecula falling as much as the slums… so these “over value” numbers ar emisleading in that they clump the whole county together and you can’t do that.

prices in La Jolla aren’t goign to drop or change exactly the same as prices in Scripps, or Mira Mesa….or Carmel Valley… you may see overall trends… but do you think prices will fall the SAME across the board in all areas iwthi n a county.. i don’t think so.

i’m not saying stuff won’t fall. in my nice little area of Temecula… houses are sitting for sale and not moving… there are piles of houss on the maket.

why would my landlord hav eoffered me his house at almost a 100,000 LOSS unless he felt he coldn’t do any better?

“then you have nice little spots like Temecula…that are basically outcroppings of the SD market and OC market… 90% of it is upscale, cleancut, etc.”

The problem with Temecula is it’s infested with speculations/fraud. While the houses in Temecula may look nice on the outside, it is the financings of the houses that are crummy. In the next few years, foreclosures will mushroom in Temecula.

I suspect that the main reason Temecula looks good now b/c most of it is relatively new. Overtime, new houses will become old. This is why, in real estate, it’s all about the location. And Temecula is “location challenged”.

Temecula is an “outcropping” of SD & OC. Riverside is also an “outcropping” of OC & LA. Riverside used to be new & looked good too.

Neighborhood prices don’t happen in a vacuum. They move up and down in relation to what’s else is out there. Everything is interrelated.

They are creaping down. 4th quarter should be down to 10% overvalued.