I too tend to think the “experts” extrapolate in straight lines. And we’ve seen it from both sides, in both directions. Month to month sales are up and we’re through the bubble, they’re down and they just now start saying the worst is yet to come.
I trned to agree with a 3-4 timelines best case scenario. At worst it will go down as far and as quickly or slowly as it went up, probably from 2000-2001 prices.
This article in the Daily News today is more evidence of dropping prices:
On average, a foreclosed property sells 20.3 percent below its market value. The median discount level is slightly lower in Orange County at 19.6 percent compared with 21 percent in Los Angeles County.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
A typical home that goes into foreclosure was originally purchased for $465,000 in Los Angeles County and $532,000 in Orange County.
The average sales price of a foreclosed property is $447,000 in Los Angeles County and $479,000 in Orange County.
