Bailout will not happen. There is no broad support for this kind of bailout and even the President has indicated that it is not going to be happening. By the time a new administration comes after the ’08 elections it would be way to late to salvage anything.

Currently Hillary Clinton and Senator Dodd are the only 2 buffoons calling for this bailout nonsense.

If you look back at the history of the last Real Estate crash in the 1990s, Bush (the father) loss the 1992 elections mostly because of the recession. Bill Clinton was then an unknown Southern governor.

This time the Republicans will loose because of a recession also. By the time a Democrat gets into the White house in 2009, it’ll be too late to do anything but clean up the mess.

Bill Clinton is the one who cleaned up the S&L mess and gave us welfare reform in 1996. The Republicans are like Realtors, they give us a lot of lip service positive spin but produce little (I don’t mean the Piggington Realtors). I think Republicans get votes because they are like motivational speakers who make people feel good for a short while. You invest in their schemes and you feel wealthy for a while until you go bankrupt.

SD Realtor, interesting point about Hilary. I tend to view issues, such as bailout, in terms of who would profit the most. If the real estate market continues to decay, where will we be the summer before the next presidential cycle? Who will be the presidential candidates? How will these individuals gain from the real estate debacle? Perhaps these questions will clue us into the future of San Diego real estate.

I have never expressed my political views on this site and will not start now. Anyways Hillary does have alot of money behind her so that is what prompted my earlier comment.

sddreaming my read on the cycle is that I believe it will be a 6 year cycle and we are in year 2. As you have seen there are those that have posted thoughts (sdrealtor and dacounselor) that the banks and lending institutions are mobilizing forces to deal with the wave of possible foreclosures. I for one absolutely agree with these thoughts. There is way way way to much money involved to assume these powers that be will let so many foreclosures occur. Concho is another who has posted his thoughts and while may seem cycnical I rally have a hard time disagreeing with him as well. To much money is at stake.

By the summer of 2008 we should be well past the 1996 figure for total foreclosures. If this is allowed to happen with little to no government interference, and if the banks, lenders, hedge funds stave off a percentage of them, but not a high percentage, then we “should” see another price decline from where we are today. I would guess it will be in single digits.

When you say who will gain from the debacle I assume you mean which presidential candidates? I guess the ones that politicize the debacle the best. Hillary and Obama will most likely be best suited to gain the most out of it.

Just my guess…

SD Realtor

If I remember well, a poster previously said that’s what he and his relatives did in the 1990s — walk away from mortgages and buy other houses at 1/3 off. Yes, it’s different this time. The numbers are larger so there’ll be even more incentives to let upside-down houses go back to the bank.

By the way, there’s nothing wrong (legally or ethically) with letting the lender foreclose. It’s one of the terms of mortgage contract and going into foreclosure is simply abiding by the terms of the agreement, nothing more, nothing less.

” Ameriquest’s top executive, Roland Arnall, also has been one of President Bush’s top fundraisers, generating $12 million for the president’s political efforts during the past four years. On July 28, Bush nominated Arnall, a billionaire who was ranked No. 106 in the 2004 Forbes magazine list of the wealthiest Americans, as ambassador to the Netherlands.”

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/08/12/MNG7UE70IF1.DTL

http://netherlands.usembassy.gov/biography.html

I think that if there’s a bailout, the money will all go to the lenders rather than the homeowners.

How can you extend toxic mortgages that are interest-only, negative-amortization, low teaser rates, option-ARMs? By definition, the monthly mortgage payments on these loans hardly pay the interest and the loans balances are growing, not being paid down.

 From what I heard….36 million of these letters went out last week, hopefully you didn't get one

Dear fool with the ARM:

PARTY'S OVER ….time to give all of that money back to me and my small group of family's that actually control the world and the Fed….(well, you call it the "Federal Reserve" Which it is neither, its our own personal ATM/printing press)

Hope you had fun "holding" our dough for the last 3 years…now back to work you lazy dock monkeys !! ..the PARTY is OVER

Sincerely,

M. Bilderberger

CC. A. Rothschild

M. Krupp